Research
Technology trackers.
A tracker holds one technology against the limit physics sets for it, and keeps the record, the pilot line, and the shipping product on separate lines. Most disagreement about frontier hardware comes from mixing those three up.
The three lines every tracker keeps
Applied identically across every title, which is what makes a reading on one comparable to a reading on another.
Layer 01
The physical ceiling
What the technology can do before economics enter: thermodynamic limits, energy density, materials and thermal constraints, taken from published physics rather than vendor projections.
Layer 02
The current best
The highest independently certified result to date, with the body that certified it and the date. Separated from the ceiling above it, so the remaining headroom is visible.
Layer 03
What ships
What is actually available in commercial volume, which is usually well behind the record. The gap between this line and the one above is where most market forecasts go wrong.
How a tracker is maintained
Each tracker is reviewed on a fixed schedule and again whenever a material event occurs: a certified record, a regulatory decision, a capacity commitment, or a cancellation. Every tracker page carries the date it was last reviewed, so you can tell a current reading from a stale one.
Corrections that move a reading are surfaced at the top of the tracker for a full review cycle. The full method, including how sources are ranked, is published in our methodology.
The ETA Intel Magazine.
A free, network-wide digital magazine, twice a year, with the readings that mattered across every title, including where a tracker moved.